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Category Archives: Financial Markets

Closing bell: Modest gains for stocks; FRE, FNM rally, UAUA, NWA drop

27-Aug-08

Filed under: After the bell, Major movement, Market matters, Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), UAL Corp (UAUA)

There was a bit of a move up in the market today, but there was very little news to push sentiment one way or the other. Traders are too tired from the beating they have taken since Memorial Day.

DJIA : 11,504.87 +0.81%
NASDAQ: 2,382.46 +0.87%
S&P 500: 12.81.63 +0.8%
10 Year Bond 3.772% -0.0120
52-Week Lows

Short interest figures for stocks traded on both the NYSE and Nasdaq were released yesterday: Short sellers jumped out of both financials and big tech, signaling a possible turn up in those sectors.

Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) continued to rally, extending hopes they will not have to be bailed out by the government and that common shareholder will not be crushed. Late in the day Freddie was up 17% and Fannie 12%.

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Wind, solar face yet another hurdle: The power grid

27-Aug-08

Filed under: Other issues, Bad news

Wind and solar, two renewable energy sources with a promising future, nevertheless face a bottleneck of sorts in the United States: the electric power grid. The existing grid can not handle the new demands, The New York Times reported Wednesday, forcing renewable wind and solar sites to shut down, even when conditions are right to generate and sell power.

An infrastructure-challenged U.S.

Economist Glen Langan says there’s a theme that keeps popping up in the U.S. economy in the early 21st century: inadequate infrastructure. “We’re a nation of inadequate infrastructures: the power grid, air travel/air traffic control, railways, highways… pick an infrastructure and you’ll see a network that can’t handle present demands, let alone an expanded national economy in 2020 or 2030,” Langan said.

The power grid bottleneck is particularly frustrating and damaging because both wind and solar power generation systems are mushrooming, and could, with an adequate grid, account for more than 20% of the nation’s power needs, Langan said, adding that some economic models put renewable energy’s potential contribution even higher, at 25% or more.

“Imagine T. Boone Pickens building his massive, multi-billion dollar wind mill farm and having it sit idle because the grid cannot tolerate and transmit the increased power? Pretty sad,” Langan said.

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Can Nardelli and Cerberus possibly make money with Chrysler?

27-Aug-08

Filed under: General Motors (GM), Nissan Motors (NSANY)

Sometimes, it’s hard to determine if major investors are being overly optimistic, outright daffy, or are simply seeing something that the rest of us just don’t see.

In my view, the current course of events at Chrysler Corp. is one of those difficult to determine situations. On its face, it looks like it could be a case of basic business logic in action. But on closer examination, it just doesn’t make sense, at least not to me.

Declaring a payoff horizon of ten years, Cerberus Capital Management has placed a great deal of faith in Chrysler, the American auto manufacturer which is best described these days as an also ran. The kicker is, the Cerberus ten year plan is being initiated at a time when auto industry profitability is near impossible. Consider also the fact that current Chrysler management openly admits that the company isn’t in any condition to go it alone.

And there’s more trouble in the mix. Cerberus said in a New York Times story that Chrysler is meeting “every financial metric.” But Cerberus considers the world’s current economic turmoil to be a temporary problem, not the economic world change that it actually is. Meanwhile, Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli is smiling because Cerberus has given Chrysler lots of money, and he gets to cut heads.

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The best housing stance for buyers, sellers? Staying put

27-Aug-08

Filed under: Forecasts, Economic data, Housing, Recession

There is an old axiom among lobbyists inside Washington, D.C.’s Beltway that goes: “Don’t just do something, stand there!”

It’s a policy wonk truism arguing that when uncertainty abounds, sometimes the best action is no action. And, one could argue, today’s potential home buyers and sellers would be wise to heed the Beltway axiom.

A case of the Case-Shiller jitters

Economist Peter Dawson was hoping for Case-Shiller house price statistics in July that were easier on the eye. Dawson was disappointed: the Case-Shiller Index of 20 major metropolitan areas plunged 15.9% from July 2007 (pdf). Prices in the 10-city index plummeted a record 17.0% from July 2007.

“The July Case-Shiller data is about as bad as it gets. It shows a housing sector where prices remain in free-fall in just about every market, save a few, such as Charlotte, North Carolina and Dallas,” Dawson said. “The housing bottom has not occurred and it’s not near.”

So given the above, what’s the best stance regarding housing? For sellers, Dawson said if one has to sell for a job relocation, a sale invariably has to occur. But for those who have a three-year or longer sales horizon, postponing a sale may net a better price, providing the U.S economy recovers in 2009, he said.

For buyers, Dawson said “time is on the buyer’s side” in most markets. “At this stage, lease or rent through at least June 2009,” Dawson said. “In most major markets, prices are likely to be lower by next spring than they are today.”

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W&T Offshore (WTI): Drilling with David Dreman

27-Aug-08

Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy

“We are moving headlong into oil,” notes John Reese, who analyzes stocks based on the criteria used by “legendary” investors such as Buffett, Graham and Lynch.

In his Validea newsletter, he says, “My fundamental models indicate that the oil industry is where the best values in the market are.” Here’s a look at W&T Offshore (NYSE: WTI), which is based on the criteria used by contrarian David Dreman.

“The economy and stock market have gone through a legitimate crisis because of the credit woes, and it takes time for something like that to work itself out.

“But the important thing to remember is that we’ve been through financial crises before — even bad-debt financial crises like this one — and the market has always stabilized and then pushed higher.

“And history has shown that those who can stick with the stock market through down times like these will be rewarded.

“David Dreman — one of the gurus I base my strategies on — notes in his recent Forbes column, ‘If you pack up now, chances are you’ll miss a good part of the next bull market. A large part of the gains are always made in the first few months of one, when market-timing investors are still on the sidelines.’

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Ford to spend $75 million retooling truck plant for small cars

27-Aug-08

Filed under: Products and services, Ford Motor (F)

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) will refit an existing truck plant in Michigan to manufacture smaller cars. Cost: $75 million. This comes on the heels of one of the worst years ever for large American automakers, which still can’t cope with rapidly changing consumer desires for fuel-efficient transportation instead of gas guzzling SUVs and large trucks.

As Georges indicated recently, Ford will need massive plant retooling to get its bottom line back in shape as it produces the product mix consumers are looking for. This is a good step for Ford, even though it will be costly. The $75 million price is minor considering the cost of doing nothing.

Ford says the production of newer, fuel-efficient cars at the Michigan plant will begin in a few months, with completion sometime in 2010. It’s also moving 1,000 of the employees from that plant to another one in Wayne, Michigan to increase production of the 4-cylinder Ford Focus sedan. Since Ford spent $300 million just three years ago to build the plant to be flexible, this should speed the conversion, according to the automaker.

It’s just too bad that Ford can’t unveil more small car production in November instead of just starting to convert a plant for a few years down the road.

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Has housing bottomed? Mortgage data lifts Toll Brothers (TOL), others

27-Aug-08

Filed under: Major movement, Good news, Industry, Toll Brothers (TOL), Options, Technical Analysis, Economic data, Housing

TOL logoToll Brothers (NYSE: TOL - option chain) shares are soaring higher today after weekly mortgage data came out this morning that showed applications rose last week. This after yesterday’s mixed numbers for new home sales caused at least one celebrity stock analyst to call a bottom in housing. If you think that the stock won’t fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TOL.

TOL opened this morning at $22.42. So far today the stock has hit a low of $22.33 and a high of $23.43. As of 12:15, TOL is trading at $23.43, up $1.10 (4.5%). The chart for TOL looks bullish and S&P gives TOL a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn’t do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just seven weeks as long as TOL is above $17.50 at October expiration. Toll would have to fall by more than 25% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

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Dillard’s, Talbots rise despite wider Q2 losses

27-Aug-08

Filed under: Earnings reports, Recession

The economic downturn has meant lower sales for retailers such as department store chain Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS) and apparel retailer Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB). On Wednesday both companies reported wider second-quarter losses.

Little Rock, Ark.-based Dillard’s said it it lost $38.3 million, or 51 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with a loss of $25.2 million, or 31 cents a share, in the second quarter of the previous year. Same-store sales fell 4%, and overall revenue dropped to $1.65 billion from $1.69 billion a year ago.

Results included a gain of 15 cents per share, mostly from the sale of a company airplane, and store closing and other charges of 8 cents per share.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had expected a loss of 54 cents per share on revenue of $1.62 billion.

Dillard’s said cost-cutting efforts in the second quarter were insufficient to offset disappointing results, but that the company would continue to close under-performing stores and cut back on advertising and general expenses.

Shares of Dillard’s jumped 48 cents, or 4%, to $11.85 in early trading, before settling back down. Shares are down about 38% year to date.

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